tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post286459344109941165..comments2023-10-24T01:46:47.151-07:00Comments on CynicusEconomicus: The UK: Statistics and EconomyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-2444099788043437292013-03-01T05:37:39.510-08:002013-03-01T05:37:39.510-08:00My sense tooMy sense tooAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-87172035783836809342012-10-22T10:07:11.755-07:002012-10-22T10:07:11.755-07:00Um, OK, I will say straight away that I am not goi...Um, OK, I will say straight away that I am not going to look up any figures, but if the following analysis is flatly contradicted by the facts then please let me know.<br /><br />"You failed to notice that tax revenues in normal times grow each year" means that you think that the Brown years were "normal". In fact, as you point out, the tax take was increasing by 6% year after year, when the economy was growing by (depending how you measure it, blah, blah) NO WAY NEAR 6%, perhaps 2-3%, ie, the government was taking an ever higher proportion of GDP in taxes. How many years do you think this marvellous trend could continue until the private sector had no money left at all?!<br /><br />I wonder if cynicus could crunch the numbers to prove that debt accumulation was needed just to fund all the extra taxes? Perhaps that is a bit of a stretch.<br /><br />Great blog btw,<br />BenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-73535278430346642842012-10-21T11:58:09.188-07:002012-10-21T11:58:09.188-07:00Do you do any analysis on Canada? Which country do...Do you do any analysis on Canada? Which country do you think will be hit hardest by the collapse of respective housing bubbles? UK or Canada?Ben Fhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13760806340684934435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-51025966949970728472012-10-21T06:50:53.222-07:002012-10-21T06:50:53.222-07:00And as for Brown's "terrifying," &qu...And as for Brown's "terrifying," "profligate", "out of control" spending and stimulus package: its cost was not that great, only about £25 billion:<br /><br /><i>With the onset of the recession, the United Kingdom was one of the major economies leading calls for fiscal action to stimulate aggregate demand. Throughout 2008 a number of fiscal measures were introduced including a £145 tax cut for basic rate (below £34,800 pa earnings) tax payers, a temporary 2.5% cut in Value Added Tax (Sales Tax), £3 billion worth of investment spending brought forward from 2010 and a variety of other measures such as a £20 billion Small Enterprise Loan Guarantee Scheme. <b>The total cost of these measures, mostly announced in the November 2008 Pre-Budget Report was roughly £20 billion (not counting loan guarantees). Further limited measures worth £5 billion</b> were unveiled in the 2009 budget including training help for the young unemployed and a "car scrappage" scheme</i><br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premiership_of_Gordon_Brown#Recession_and_fiscal_stimulusAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-13242819079986643112012-10-21T06:39:55.337-07:002012-10-21T06:39:55.337-07:00"A commentator recently suggested that the de...<i>"A commentator recently suggested that the deficit growth was due to a collapse in revenue, but we can see that this only explains a small element of the deficit."</i><br /><br />Not <i>solely</i> due to tax revenue collapse, but "<b>mainly</b> because tax revenues collapsed in an unprecedented manner".<br /><br />That statement is entirely correct.<br /><br />You failed to notice that tax revenues in normal times grow each year:<br /><br /><b>Fiscal year | UK Net taxes (£bn) | Growth rate %</b><br />2002-03 | 375 | <br />2003-04 | 397 | 5.86%<br />2004-05 | 427.1 | 7.58%<br />2005-06 | 456.8 | 6.95%<br />2006-07 | 486 | 6.39%<br />2007-08 | 516 | 6.17%<br />2008-09 | 508 | -1.55%<br />2009-10 | 477.8 | -5.94%<br />2010-11 | 528.9 | 10.69%<br />2011-12 | 550.6 | <br />http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/apr/25/tax-receipts-1963<br /><br />With an average annual growth rate in UK tax revenue of 6.59% from 2003-2008, this is roughly what UK tax revenues should have looked like in the absence of the great recession and financial crisis:<br /><br /><b>Fiscal year | Net taxes (£bn)</b><br />2008-09 | 550<br />2009-10 | 586.24<br />2010-11 | 624.87<br />2011-12 | 666.04<br /><br />So the <i>actual</i> tax revenue losses the UK government suffered when the trend line rate of growth is factored in are:<br /><br />2008-09 £42 billion<br />2009-10 £108 billion<br />2010-11 £95.97<br />2011-12 £115.44<br /><br />These are the figures for budget deficits partly form your previous graph:<br /><br /><b>UK Budget Deficits</b><br />2008-09 £69.2<br />2009-10 £152.7 <br />2010-11 £143.2 billion<br />2011-12 £125.7 billion<br /><br />Once we subtract the revenue lost from the budget deficits, the deficits would have been:<br /><br />2008-09 £27.2 billion<br />2009-10 £44 billion<br />2010-11 £47.03 billion<br />2011-12 £10.26 billion<br /><br />As I said, there is no doubt the <i>vast majority</i> of the budget deficits were caused by tax revenue collapse. <br /><br />You have failed to factor in lost revenues that would have been taken <i>with the trend line growth rate</i> still occurring. This accounts for why you can't see the truth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-40793487499207747732012-10-21T06:18:27.348-07:002012-10-21T06:18:27.348-07:00A couple of very interesting LSE public lectures (...A couple of very interesting LSE public lectures (audio) that cover this 'decline' ground <br /><br />"23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism and what they mean for our economic prospects " => <br /><br />http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=1584<br /><br />"Going South: Why Britain will have a Third World Economy by 2014" => <br /><br />http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=1597<br /><br />chaingangcharliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04803774361542678154noreply@blogger.com