tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post1361721586054596425..comments2023-10-24T01:46:47.151-07:00Comments on CynicusEconomicus: The Downwards Spiral: the UKUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-18655873692940039032011-12-01T02:03:05.529-08:002011-12-01T02:03:05.529-08:00I am trying to understand just what was announced ...I am trying to understand just what was announced by the central banks, FED, ECB, BOE, Japan, Switzerland and Canada yesterday.<br /><br />The media seems to be concentrating on the fact that the Central banks have made the cost of buying dollars cheaper by 0.5% and this is just fantastic! - it sounds no big deal to me.<br /><br />However, I think they also announced that the central banks would be providing liquidity in each other currencies against the collateral that they would normally accept.<br /><br />So in my lay mans understanding of this - they will accept Euro denominated assets and provide 'loans' not only in £ but in Euro's, Swiss Francs, Dollars and Yen. <br /><br />This sounds as though it is more significant, in the context of a collapse in the Euro currency. Presumably a stressed bank can swop it's dodgy Euro assets into other currencies which would remain liquid even if the Euro goes tits up. By the central banks agreeing to work together it means an US bank could go to any of the central banks and get any or all of the currencies it wants and dump its Euro's around the world. <br /><br />It seems that the central banks have agreed to underwrite the conversion of Euro's into other currencies.<br /><br />If I'm right I guess the exchange rate of the Euro will start to fall and may fall rapidly. <br /><br />Can someone, with more knowledge than me explain what's going on ?!!<br /><br />Many Thanks and Best Regards,<br /><br />YorkieYorkienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-2596731624808184142011-12-01T01:15:08.585-08:002011-12-01T01:15:08.585-08:00Hi CE
Chris Dillow (a marxist!) has some interes...Hi CE <br /><br />Chris Dillow (a marxist!) has some interesting comments on the same OBR forecast and the fantastical assumptions underpinning it. <br /><br />http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2011/11/structural-deficit-doubts.htmlLordSidcupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-18521857638850056232011-12-01T01:08:10.610-08:002011-12-01T01:08:10.610-08:00Hello Bob,
Kyle Bass (the latest celebrity dooms...Hello Bob, <br /><br />Kyle Bass (the latest celebrity doomsayer) has arguments that convince me to take your wager. <br /><br />http://www.scribd.com/doc/74335711/Hayman-Nov2011<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBWiQlS5Qg0LordSidcupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-76028640767129597592011-11-30T16:56:20.568-08:002011-11-30T16:56:20.568-08:00Thank you as always for another excellent article....Thank you as always for another excellent article. They are always a great read; I'm so glad you're back again at this important time.<br /><br />The question of how the Euro may break up is an interesting one. <br /><br />My opinion is - it won't. Germany will buckle, and allow the ECB to print money. Now, I *know* Germany has fears (memories) about hyperinfation, and there's the moral hazard etc. etc., but the point is - and Germany knows this - it is the least worst option for itself (never mind the rest).<br /><br />Well, I say 'buckle'. So, is Germany in a lose-lose situation?<br /><br />Actually, no. Knowledge is power, so Germany - knowing the decision that will be made in the end "for the good of all", will spend the interim period pivoting itself accordingly. For example, bank shares will soar once Germany gives the green light, so maybe Germany will buy bank shares via some mechanism. And there will be other ways of clawing a bit of money, or influence back, of course.<br /><br />So, Germany has the consolation prize of knowing that she has not only done "the right thing" but quietly benefitting ahead of that decision. Shrewd stuff, and easier to sell to the electorate (who will be told that their nation's debt isn't as much as first thought, so they'll be some 'goodies' to give back).<br /><br />Watch out for a small stock market upwards adjustment just prior to the announcement as those in the know place their timely orders.<br /><br />Of course the Euro will sort itself out. It's all posturing whilst the behinds-the-scenes stuff is all finalised. The powerful & wealthy (turkeys) never vote for a haircut (Christmas).<br /><br />That's what I think will happen. Anyone fancy a wager? :)<br /><br />BobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-6619556228935562352011-11-30T03:37:12.853-08:002011-11-30T03:37:12.853-08:00Fellow "cynics" should enjoy this video ...Fellow "cynics" should enjoy this video lecture by Chris Martenson:<br /><br />http://www.goldmoney.com/video/martenson-presentation.html<br /><br />Good fortune.<br /><br />Death to Bubble AddictsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-19905311325758724332011-11-29T16:28:28.857-08:002011-11-29T16:28:28.857-08:00With each passing week, Cynicus, your long-standin...With each passing week, Cynicus, your long-standing analysis seems to be substantiated further. Congratulations ... but commiserations too, for that can't be a pleasant feeling!<br />I see democratic governments stepping in to prevent market mechanisms from working, and governing elites stepping in to prevent democratic mechanisms from working. I don't see any sign that governing elites, or elected politicians, or captains of industry [lovely dated phrase!] know how to run the place when the market and the ballot box are both out of commission...<br />In a world of multi-storey fictions, where no-one knows what the real position is any more, events will be shaped by those powers that best combine force and unreason. <br />On the plus side, there'll be some damned fine exam questions about this mess in 70 or 80 years time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com