tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post7294541808416563412..comments2023-10-24T01:46:47.151-07:00Comments on CynicusEconomicus: Are we close to the end?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-86862107713936823962011-12-14T06:07:07.076-08:002011-12-14T06:07:07.076-08:00Hi again Cynicus. You asked "Are we close to...Hi again Cynicus. You asked "Are we close to the end?" but on the basis that "there's a lot of ruin in a nation" it will be rather hard to say when the end was, let alone will be. <br />But I'll venture a guess, in answer to your question, that the Eurozone crisis will return with renewed force in mid- to late-January.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-71654953229911334332011-12-10T10:03:19.352-08:002011-12-10T10:03:19.352-08:00There is a nice quotation somewhere by a leading e...There is a nice quotation somewhere by a leading economist I try to find, but in essence he states that in Economics you may have a fully correct analysis but face humiliation because you are out on the timing; but when it does arrive, it is bigger and more devastating in impact that you ever predicted.<br /><br />I know that from experience to be very trueTomTomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-78308419936100668182011-12-10T04:44:00.951-08:002011-12-10T04:44:00.951-08:00Hi Cynicus, I can't tell whether you were writ...Hi Cynicus, I can't tell whether you were writing this post before or after the Eurosummit agreement announced on Friday. But I'm not sure that matters though: there have been Eurozone budget rules before which have been broken as soon as they became inconvenient, and the proposed new rules could well prove mighty inconvenient mighty soon. <br />As for timing, I read recently (possibly in Robert Peston's blog) that huge amounts of Eurozone government debt need to be rolled over in 2012, quite apart from new borrowing. Good news: survive 2012 and things get easier. Bad news: if the markets know 2012 will be risky, anyone who can move their money to perceived safety will probably start to do so before the crunch comes - which would bring the crunch forwards. Hard to tell which crunch though: there seem to be quite a few variations to choose from.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-63283376962912082102011-12-10T04:22:27.648-08:002011-12-10T04:22:27.648-08:00I admire your economic analyses but there is more ...I admire your economic analyses but there is more to this European melodrama than economics. Something that has been puzzling me for well over a year is why the Eurozone is playing this crisis out so slowly. A year ago fiscal union would have seemed almost unthinkable to many Eurozone countries whereas today it is a preferred option. They are playing out the crisis to achieve an objective and that objective is political union. When considering the economics we should not forget that the Euro was introduced to create political union. Here is an extract from an ECB paper:<br /><br />"So what does the future hold? Anyone who believes in the role of a single currency as a pace-setter in achieving political unity (Europe will be created by means of a single currency or not at all (Jacques Rueff 1950)) will regard the decisive step as has having already been taken. This does not provide an answer as to how the "rest" of the journey should be approached. " Europe: common money - political union? September 1999 http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/1999/html/sp990920.en.html<br /><br />Sadly the British have little understanding of Franco-German history and seem unaware that when England was forming as a nation Northern France, Northern Italy and Germany etc. formed a single nation that persisted past 1600 AD. They want it back like the Scots, Bosnians or Basques want their nations back. It seems to me that our media are mistaking a fundamentally nationalist project for an exercise in internationalism. See <a href="http://pol-check.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurozone-eu-cameron-and-crisis.html" rel="nofollow">The Eurozone, EU, Cameron and Crisis</a> for further discussion.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07442010719863995872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-25067351046864458152011-12-09T23:47:13.045-08:002011-12-09T23:47:13.045-08:00You might find this interview interesting: http://...You might find this interview interesting: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/12/03/my-hardtalk-interview-transcribed/Foppehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17193005181661755810noreply@blogger.com