tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post5986784926436394177..comments2023-10-24T01:46:47.151-07:00Comments on CynicusEconomicus: China as the World Economic Power?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-10475212885812840702009-04-28T10:33:00.000-07:002009-04-28T10:33:00.000-07:00I would have to agree with Tiberius in that his co...I would have to agree with Tiberius in that his comments are very pertinent. The questions that Cynicus raises in his post deal with the future of China with regards to both its political and economic environment. For instance, Cynicus brings up China's opacity as a potential stumbling block to its rise as a superpower. It will be interesting to see if China can succeed with a foundation of strict state control as opposed to a more laissez-faire, transparent style of governing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-84096907352863687712009-04-27T21:20:00.000-07:002009-04-27T21:20:00.000-07:00Tiberius
......
"You ask of China: "Will it be a s...Tiberius<br />......<br />"You ask of China: "Will it be a slide into disorder, or a successful bid for economic dominance?" <br /><br />To my mind, this serves to falsely frame the nature of the debate by allowing the former to sound like and undesirable outcome, while the later to be appear as a positive which should be aimed for."<br /><br />Correct me if I am wrong, I thought the negation of an "undesirable outcome" is a "desirable outcome". Perhaps I am dense, but repeated reading didn't change me initial impression.<br /><br />As for why I think your post a bit out of place is because the blog focuses on economics (with no lacking in criticism of China) while you are raising tired political points. If you think Chinese economic advance threatens the world as a whole, make that point on its merit, or brave some rebuttals on a political forumnovicenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-58749135286410465942009-04-26T19:32:00.000-07:002009-04-26T19:32:00.000-07:00novice,
re "Your manifesto against Chinese fascis...novice,<br /><br />re "Your manifesto against Chinese fascists seemed a bit out of place."<br /><br />It was a comment on a post about the future of China, I fail to see how it could be more 'in place'.<br /><br />"There are plenty of forums (economist comment pages for example) where people will debate you properly on these accusations."<br /><br />Yes, the internet is a big place.<br /><br />"Sitting in comfort cheering on the coming "slide into chaos" of any nation or people means you have no idea what are the real implications of that."<br /><br />I wasn't 'cheering on' anything; the last thing I'd want to see is another Tiananmen-style Chinese massacre. <br /><br />I suggest you reread my post more carefully.<br /><br />TiberiusTiberiushttp://tiberiusleodis.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-75871998193237797902009-04-26T07:16:00.000-07:002009-04-26T07:16:00.000-07:00Tiberius,
Your manifesto against Chinese fascists...Tiberius,<br /><br />Your manifesto against Chinese fascists seemed a bit out of place. There are plenty of forums (economist comment pages for example) where people will debate you properly on these accusations. Sitting in comfort cheering on the coming "slide into chaos" of any nation or people means you have no idea what are the real implications of that.novicenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-55771749246772406632009-04-25T16:12:00.000-07:002009-04-25T16:12:00.000-07:00Israel is developing strong ties with Communist Ch...<A HREF="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1009570.html" REL="nofollow">Israel is developing strong ties with Communist China</A>(haaretz.com)<br /><br /><A HREF="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ae725992-0f3c-11dd-9646-0000779fd2ac.html" REL="nofollow">Israel seeks to reinvent itself as finance hub</A>(ft.com)<br /><br /><A HREF="http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1063823.html" REL="nofollow">The Currency War</A>(haaretz.com)Time To Wake Uphttp://thisismystruggle.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-3524520626089299872009-04-25T14:22:00.000-07:002009-04-25T14:22:00.000-07:00Can China be a world power given its self inflicte...Can China be a world power given its self inflicted population time bomb?sobersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-38754165786343979242009-04-25T09:47:00.000-07:002009-04-25T09:47:00.000-07:00Cynicus,
An interesting article, but I think you ...Cynicus,<br /><br />An interesting article, but I think you should consider more carefully the language you adopt when describing China's social situation.<br /><br />You ask of China: "Will it be a slide into disorder, or a successful bid for economic dominance?" <br /><br />To my mind, this serves to falsely frame the nature of the debate by allowing the former to sound like and undesirable outcome, while the later to be appear as a positive which should be aimed for.<br /><br />Last week I was walking through my city centre (Leeds, UK) and saw an information stall manned by a young Chinese man. The man was handing out leaflets regarding the harvesting of organs from <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reports_of_organ_harvesting_from_live_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China" REL="nofollow"> Falun Gong members</A>- a practice he claims has been ongoing for the last decade and to which the West has turned a blind eye.<br /><br />How accurate these reports are I cannot say (though as an Amnesty International member of some years nothing would surprise me as to the depths of the China's disdain for human-rights)- but this is my point: Inspite of all China's recent 'success' in terms of economic growth, stories as barbaric as these still cannot be discounted out of hand. <br /><br />The Falun Gong are a dramatic example, but there are others: the Tibetans, Uighurs, Mongolians, the peasants and land-reformers of the 'interior regions' forcibly evicted from the land to make way for multinational agricultural companies, labour leaders, human-rights activists, journalists, and so on.<br /><br />The 'order' that exists in China today is the order of a police state. I thererfore think that it is wrong to characterise any break down in its structure as a 'slide into disorder' when it could, in reality, be seen a (long overdue) move towards democracy. <br /><br />Indeed, since this language of 'disorder' (or 'chaos' or 'anarchy') is precisely of the type employed by repressive regimes the world over to discredit popular movements and justify violent repression of them, we should consciously resisted this politically-loaded use of words.<br /><br />Was Tiananmen square a 'public disorder' or a 'violently supressed democratic uprising'? I guess it depends which newspapers you were reading.<br /><br />For all America's problems, it does (at the moment at least ) pay lip-service to the ideals of freedom and democracy; China doesn't appear to do even that.<br /><br />TiberiusTiberiushttp://tiberiusleodis.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-68475276259929147702009-04-25T06:18:00.000-07:002009-04-25T06:18:00.000-07:00Since the days of Marco Polo's tales of China's va...Since the days of Marco Polo's tales of China's vast sophistication, the West has always had a fascination with this huge nation. For centuries there have been many false starts, as China rejected Western ideals and technology. Could we again have another false start with the rise of Asia? The communist centrally planned ethos has slowly ebbed away but is still a prominent feature of the economy. As you state in this post regarding transparency, China indeed fiddle their stats. Growth also started from an unbelievably low base - they had nothing in 1979 as the Great Modernisation program under Deng Xiaoping began. Moves since have been frantic and radical, but old communism still lives in on, with a lack of respect for property and peoples rights. However China it seems this time in history wish to be involved in the global economy and become the next superpower. Gold and copper acquisitions are only the tip of the iceberg. Mining deals in Australia or Oil Deals with Hugo Chavez are also a few that have been occurring recently.<br /><br />All this growth will come at a cost. Specifically China will have a huge recession. Domestic demand can't pick up and replace Western demand. So in the short term China will have huge problems. As long as they use their reserves wisely, continue to attract foreign capital and move ever more to a market economy they will continue with their rapid growth in future years.<br /><br />I also have enjoyed reading some of your previous posts.Phill Tomlinsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16427896363273348083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-84517235854972236852009-04-25T04:21:00.000-07:002009-04-25T04:21:00.000-07:00Interesting views from Charles Hugh Smith:
China:...Interesting views from Charles Hugh Smith:<br /><br />China: Ascendant Superpower Or Just Another Nation with Structural Problems?<br /><br />http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr09/china04-09.html<br /><br />"Maybe it won't be one superpower or two superpowers, but no superpowers: just a collection of nation-states of various sizes, all of which face a long list of structural problems."Don Keyesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-50910840329582542242009-04-25T02:26:00.000-07:002009-04-25T02:26:00.000-07:00As far as unrest is concerned, once social unrest ...As far as unrest is concerned, once social unrest flares up in the Western World that should pretty much help the CCP as they'll be able to point out the advantages of their leadership. If unrest turns violent in the West (see Argentina) they benefit even more as that would blur the lines between the reactions to unrest of Communists and Democrats.<br />The biggest holder of Gold is the US, but IIRC their holdings are valued at only around $200bn, the Gold that China recently bought is worth about $13bn. There is quite simply not enough gold around as to be able to diversify into that at a large scale. However they may be able to get their hands on the IMF reserves.<br />What, to me, increasinly looks like an option, as long as the dollar is stable, is that China gives its dollars to other countries in need of foreign reserves in exchange for a stake in something physical. The IMF does not have enough funds to cover Britain's deficit, China does. I think you remember the Suzerainity/Souverainty issue where is was supposed that Britain changed its policy in return for gilt buys.<br />China's economy has been doing extremely well for the last three decades and at every step some people were screaming for a collapse that never came, even though the commercial real estate market looks oversized and there seem to be export overcapacities, anything else seems to be going fine. They just have too many people. Again, unrest will be taken care of once the West erupts, with France already showing signs, Spain posting unemployment of 20%, Britain and America posting huge deficits and some American's already taking to the street unrest in Paris, London, Madrid and Washington looks more likely than in Beijing.Escaping Eastwards ~https://www.blogger.com/profile/16486215162247694155noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-63581189167212860742009-04-24T20:42:00.000-07:002009-04-24T20:42:00.000-07:00On Industrial Policy in Argentina Under Peron 1946...<B>On Industrial Policy in Argentina Under Peron 1946-1955</B>Although this does not relate directly to the present post, but an earlier argument, I will still post it here.<br /><br />I note that when Argentina under Peron (whose politics, repression, and support for Nazi war criminals, I should add, I utterly condemn) pursued industrial policy to modernize Argentina’s economy, <I>'Perón … was adamantly opposed to borrowing from foreign credit markets, preferring to float bonds domestically. He refused to enter the GATT (precursor to the WTO) or the IMF.'</I> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Peron#Military_government_of_1943-1946<br /><br /><br />So it appears that most of Argentina’s state spending on industrial policy was funded by domestic purchasing of government bonds.<br /><br />One major flaw of Peron’s industrial policy was the failure to create basic industries to produce so many of the capital goods required for the larger-scale industries. The inability of the domestic producers to supply these capital goods led to a rise in the imports of capital goods from overseas. But until 1948 this was not a serious problem, because Argentina’s exports of primary commodities could fund this surge in imports.<br /><br />Significantly, the breaking point was hostile US policy that excluded Argentina from the Marshal plan and caused a collapse of its agricultural export earnings:<br /><br /><I>U.S. policy also helped thwart Argentine growth during the Perón years. These disputes likely stemmed from the United States’ displeasure at Perón’s plans of anti-imperialist self-industrialization; by placing such embargoes on Argentina, the U.S. hoped to discourage the nation in its pursuit of becoming economically sovereign during a time when the world was divided into two spheres. U.S. interests feared losing their stake, as they had large commercial investments (over a billion dollars) vested in Argentina through the oil and meat packing industries, besides being a mechanical goods provider to Argentina … Congress was therefore disposed to a strong dislike of Perón and his government, and did all it could to hinder Argentina's becoming self-sufficient. <B>Their most detrimental act was the 1948 exclusion of Argentina exports from the Marshall Plan, the renowned Truman administration effort to combat communism and help rebuild war-torn European nations by offering U.S. aid. According to Perón biographer Joseph Page, “the Marshall Plan drove a final nail into the coffin that bore Perón’s ambitions to transform Argentina into an industrial power.” It was because of this plan that Argentina had nowhere to send the agricultural goods which it had formerly been sending to Western Europe and using the profits to sustain their economy</B></I>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Peron#Military_government_of_1943-1946<br /><br /><br />So it turns out that deliberate U.S. policy helped thwart Argentine growth during the lster Perón years. The crisis of 1948-1954 was not really caused by its industrial policy at all, whose main problem could have been solved by gradually using impressive export earnings to invest in local industries to produce basic capital goods (and thus decrease the imports of these goods from overseas).<br /><br />Industrial policy is badly needed in the UK and the US today. The argument for it is not refuted by Argentina's experience at all.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.com