tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post2571467016706402694..comments2023-10-24T01:46:47.151-07:00Comments on CynicusEconomicus: Can the Economics of the Past be used to Predict the Economic Future?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-29770959138034302452008-08-03T16:16:00.000-07:002008-08-03T16:16:00.000-07:00Hi MarkI was being slightly disingenuous when I as...Hi Mark<BR/><BR/>I was being slightly disingenuous when I asked my question about whether "this time it's different", as I know that you have said it is the case many times before. <BR/><BR/>However, I still keep hearing 'experts' being quite complacent about the situation. On The World This Weekend at lunchtime Vicky Redwood, economist at Capital Economics, said that the reluctance of banks to lend to each other meant we might have a "technical recession" but hopefully not as bad as the early 1990s. (I asked around, and in my circle, nobody could remember the recession in the early 90s!). Another expert seemed to be suggesting that the problem is a "contagion" spreading through the economy, which makes it sound less than a fundamental problem. <BR/><BR/>As I understand it, both of these analyses are very shallow (only looking at the symptoms, not the causes), and these experts tacitly admitted that they are having difficulty making accurate forecasts. It made me wonder whether it ever occurs to them to step back and look at the 'bigger picture'. I suspect not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com