tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post2019927174085976636..comments2023-10-24T01:46:47.151-07:00Comments on CynicusEconomicus: China: A brewing confrontation?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-40009719329212615012010-01-24T20:05:00.021-08:002010-01-24T20:05:00.021-08:00Sorry, Cynicus but no cake.
The article's rea...Sorry, Cynicus but no cake.<br /><br />The article's reading by me ended when I came across this cheeky little blurb. <br /> "James Delingpole is a writer, journalist and broadcaster who is right about everything. He is the author of numerous fantastically entertaining books including Welcome To Obamaland: I've Seen Your Future And It Doesn't Work, How To Be Right"<br />The article is hardly an article. It's,in fact,a platform for a few sound byte like quotes. Delingpole's kind of journalism leaves much to be desired,like objectivity and and a lack of an authoritarian tone.<br /><br />The scientists at Climategate, as you've stated before, were found to be omitting data that would complicate what deniers probably like to call " the narrative of global warming." under political pressure. <br />1934 could have been warmer because of a number of factors, including solar activity. Climatology is complex. It's a science that relies on computer models running variables. It's over the heads of ideological pundits to comprehend or explain. Politicans are trained to not tell people anything people wouldn't like to hear. People don't generally like take responsiblity for their actions. The Earth's atmospheric content is believed to be influenced by living organisms, namely by microrganisms and later plants over billions of years. It's wrong for any person to believe that the activity of humans can have no long term impact on the Earth's ecology. Humans have killed off enitre species and have changed the course of rivers but don't believe that they can change the chemical composition of the atmosphere.Yeah, OK.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-89647160737094293482010-01-24T02:46:36.198-08:002010-01-24T02:46:36.198-08:00I liked this on green economics:
http://barrycurti...I liked this on green economics:<br />http://barrycurtis.livejournal.com/10077.html<br /><br />"The carbon market, by penalising actual producers, allows for a transfer of funds from the productive economies of the east to stagnant economies like Britain’s. In turn, some of this money gets paid to underdeveloped regions in order that they do not develop (the trees must be left standing)."Lemmingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-67572889388652364442010-01-23T02:20:21.837-08:002010-01-23T02:20:21.837-08:00James K. Galbraith has an interesting article on O...James K. Galbraith has an interesting article on Obama's banking reform:<br /><br /><a href="http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2010/01/us-is-on-right-path-to-banking-reform.html" rel="nofollow">"US Is on Right Path to Banking Reform" By James K. Galbraith</a>Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-67903346457626212252010-01-21T14:04:25.489-08:002010-01-21T14:04:25.489-08:00In news on China, Beijing has ordered banks to set...In news on China, Beijing has <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/12/china-bank-lending-govern_n_420111.html" rel="nofollow">ordered banks to set aside more reserves, and its central bank raised interest rates on one-year bills</a> so that they can <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Chinas-growth-accelerates-to-apf-1154777292.html?x=0" rel="nofollow">rein in asset bubbles</a>.<br /><br />Precisely the sort of regulation that should have been done in the West in the 1990s and 2000s to prevent the asset bubbles we had here.<br /><br />As I have said before repeatedly, one secret to China's success is its regulated banking system. It is essentially a public utility form of banking - precisely what many Western countries had from 1945 to the 1980s, and what we need to return to now.Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-47981361155540628792010-01-20T19:06:34.562-08:002010-01-20T19:06:34.562-08:00Here is an excellent article at Billyblog about hy...Here is an excellent article at Billyblog about hyperinflation and why it is unlikely:<br /><br /><a href="http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=7456" rel="nofollow">Its a hard road</a>Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-14667213325587545642010-01-20T04:11:32.352-08:002010-01-20T04:11:32.352-08:00A number of things:
One, the idea that only China...A number of things:<br /><br />One, the idea that only China is practising mercantilism is a white lie. All Western nations do practice mercantilism. <br /><br />For instance, u have mentioned the IP. So, why are patent under WTO (TRIPS) while IP from third world are under the toothless WIPO? Do not listen too much to Western propaganda and fail to see the reality. <br /><br />The unpalatable truth is this. Free trade cannot work between developed (high cost nations) and developing nations like China. The eventual result will be economic destruction of the West. <br /><br />Thus, the West has only two choices:<br /><br />(a) Reject free trade with low cost nations. This will be good also for developing nations for they will be able to protect their industries as developed nations did.<br /><br />(b) Change its taxation paradigm so as to remove the thing that leads to high cost of manufacturing in the West. This will be also good for third world nations will also do the same. However, do not count on this for vested interests are too strong at the moment.<br /><br />Another saviour will be a major innovation in the West. However, this is doubtful.<br /><br />Two, as concerns whether China is using "bad methods" to rise, I will only let you read what Churchil said in the Parliament in 1914:<br /><br />"we are not a young people with an innocent record and a scanty inheritance.We have engrossed to ourselves . . . an altogether disproportionate share of the wealth and traffic of the world. We have got all we want in territory, and our claim to be left in the<br />unmolested enjoyment of vast and splendid possessions, mainly acquired by violence, largely maintained by force, often seems<br />less reasonable to others than to us."<br /><br />Does that sound like the West rose by playing fair? In fact, the West is still using force to maintain what was acquired via violence. However, the chickens are coming home to roost.Mwarang'ethehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17751879277752081774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-59102064878437186382010-01-19T17:30:12.845-08:002010-01-19T17:30:12.845-08:00There have been some interesting links posted and ...There have been some interesting links posted and I would recommend them to all. The Spiegel, and the Zero Hedge links both offer interesting perspectives. The Spiegel article is an interesting reaction to the rise of the East, and the article is most interesting for the implicit sense of the threat of the East to Western power. <br /><br />Lord Keynes: Thanks for the link. As a regular reader like yourself will know, I have long expressed my doubts about whether the Euro might survive the crisis. There are certainly cracks in the Euro, but we will have to see how the politicians actually play it. <br /><br />Lemming: The main significance is that it is another means to de-industrialise the West...as a note, the climategate fallout continues:<br /><br />"According to multiple press reports, when NASA corrected the error, the new data apparently caused a reshuffling of NASA’s rankings for the hottest years on record in the United States, with 1934 replacing 1998 at the top of the list."<br /><br />More dodgy data..<br /><br />http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100022334/dodgy-giss-temperature-records-exposed-the-us-climategate/ <br /><br />Anonymous: Thanks for the clarification, made whilst I was writing this comment. <br /><br />General: Please accept my apologies for so few replies recently. There has been a lot of news to digest. Of particular interest is this from Mervyn King of the BoE:<br /><br />They [British people] will see their standard of living fall over the next two years as salary freezes and rising inflation eat into incomes, Mervyn King said.<br /><br />“The patience of UK households is likely to be sorely tried over the next couple of years,” Mr King said, dashing hopes that Britain could recover quickly from the deepest slump in post-war history. <br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7030904/Families-face-years-of-pain-says-Bank.html<br /><br />This is the adjustment that I have long spoken of. However, I think that it may be more dramatic and painful than Mervyn King acknowledges. I suspect that, by now, he has absorbed the depth of the UK's problems, and his comments are probably moderated for political reasons, as well as for the concerns of creditors. <br /><br />The other news is that inflations is taking off. It is not just the VAT increase, but broad based inflation. The gilts markets, already twitching, are going to get very, very nervous. Reality, it seems, is intruding upon the fantasies.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14983165364072918091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-33245694897108499952010-01-19T17:19:02.997-08:002010-01-19T17:19:02.997-08:00I'm sorry that the above came off as a rant. I...I'm sorry that the above came off as a rant. It started as a reaction to sentiment about China's undervaluing of its currency as being unfair by comparing to really unfair practices. Leverage is inherantly unfair. Nothiing in capitalism is about being "fair" It seems like a point of moral vanity in retrospect.<br /><br />Then I started talking about Europe's immigration policy as an important component in Europe's economic competitiveness since Europe's population is shrinking too small and is too expensive, really too old, to compete with emerging economies.<br /><br />What both emerging and twilight economies will have to do is deal with failed states. So far China has a better record of dealing with failed states than the West, which has insisted on the humanitarian-non-economic kind-of-aid-except-for-crippling-debts for the last fifty years. Of course, I'm generalizing so if if there's an exception to that generalization, point to it. I won't mind being corrected. Remember,the key term is "failed state".<br /><br />Isolationism is another policy that may be considered but I believe that will be elbowed out by some kind of fascism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-55480008584862125982010-01-19T16:54:57.052-08:002010-01-19T16:54:57.052-08:00Bull. Who said the Europeans and Americans ascende...Bull. Who said the Europeans and Americans ascended to power by playing fair? <br />Colonialism? Slavery? and lately QE are practices no one would consider fair.<br /><br />Free trade isn't essentially fair but it's there and most politicans agreed to it.<br /><br />Education<br />Places with better economies tend to educate even their unskilled workers better than average college graudates n America. America was never ever #1 when it came to education. America had always imported their scientific talent. If it wasn't for WWII, and the migration of skilled talent to American shores for sanctuary, I doubt America would have ascended to where it had. What has happend in the last thirty years is that the cost of living has gotten so high in western countries that they are unfavorable places to do business. IF western countries want to be competitive, they need to bring these costs under control. <br /><br />Europe needs to stop importing unskilled Muslim immigrants who are hostile to European values. If they decide to keep allowing Muslims to emigrate from regions like North Africa they must--MUST-- give them work to do when they come to Europe so that they 're too busy to turn to dispair and resort to fantaticism . Sadly, a place like France would rather continue allowing people from former colonies in North Africa, who have historically been treated like shit by the French to emigrate to France and then be descriminated against to the point they can't obtain employment. What happened to all the care that an aging population would need? Instead there is a welfare state instead of work for people brought in do work. The welfare state doesn't sit well with Muslims. Idleness is practically a vice for them.<br />It's not that immigration couldn't work at all in Europe, it's implementation is incorrect in most places. I agree tht they can't be considered citizens in countries where citizenship is defined by ancestory but they could be consided Guest EU workers or something with the right to work at least (and maybe not the right to prorecreate. There's nothing wrong with denying people the right to reproduce if they're allowed to be given a political voice,not citizenship just limited rights, and are explained why they cannot reproduce:because they come from countries where overpopulation has crippled economic development. The guest workers could argue that outstanding debt to colonial powers like France play a role but that stinging little fact is drawfed by overpopulation.) What I have stated doesn't apply to The United Kingdom 100 percent because The United Kingdom's immigration policy is well...different from that of mainland Europe. For one thing, their population isn't shrinking so they may not need a lot more immigration. I think. I may be wrong on that.<br /><br />The forum revolving around this blog ocasionally embraces nonsense like the complete denial of global warming but can it not be agreed upon that a semi-educated Christian Haitian immigrant would cause less cultural conflicts than a Muslim from North African in France ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-16382026579290286512010-01-19T16:07:34.871-08:002010-01-19T16:07:34.871-08:00CE, I noticed much Western antagonism towards Chin...CE, I noticed much Western antagonism towards China over the failed Copenhagen conference. Do you really not think there is any significance to this global warming malarkey? My gut feeling is that Western governments such as the UK's were wrong-footed in their assumption of public credulousness and the control of China's growth they thought they were going to have as a result of forcing through carbon cap-and-trade etc.Lemmingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-41832842197658335482010-01-19T13:22:05.012-08:002010-01-19T13:22:05.012-08:00Did you catch this one at zerohedge:
http://www.z...Did you catch this one at zerohedge:<br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/article/contrarian-view-china-tying-it-all-togetherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-31765195014660102372010-01-18T20:51:17.965-08:002010-01-18T20:51:17.965-08:00Slightly off-topic, but here is an excellent artic...Slightly off-topic, but here is an excellent article at Billyblog about why the EU needs a federal fiscal policy and how in the absence of one it will be better for some states to leave the EMU:<br /><br /><a href="http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=7362" rel="nofollow">Exiting the Euro?</a>Lord Keyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06556863604205200159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7820485130017459619.post-29098735451246011312010-01-18T19:23:39.880-08:002010-01-18T19:23:39.880-08:00if you look at actual trade figures you'll fin...if you look at actual trade figures you'll find that china runs sort-of-balanced trade with most nations with the us being a major outlier.<br />there's a deficit with the eu as well but even then there's e.g. germany which manages to balance trade with china.<br /><br />reminds me of the olympics, once china eclipsed the us all sorts of bogus reasons were brought forward.<br />for future western reactions you may want to read this article.<br /><br />http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,443306,00.html<br /><br />An Argument for a Trans-Atlantic Free-Trade Zone<br /><br />By Gabor Steingart <br /><br />Asian businessmen are probably the friendliest conquerors the world has ever seen. But despite the politeness and the smiles, Western governments must act quickly to combat the rise of China and Asia. The West should discuss an ambitious project: a European-American free-trade zone.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com